Predicting climate change-induced fishery shrink through bottom-up control around the southern waters of Korea by using a flow trophic model

Abstract

To predict and understand ecosystem dynamics in the southern waters of Korea, the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model was used under climate and fishery management scenarios. Two climate change-induced water temperature scenarios were given based on in situ long-term temperature measurements during 1965–2007 and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) model experiments, respectively. The GFDL model was applied to the spatially refined eastern Asia waters, with boundary condition obtained from the IPCC A1B scenario. Three fishery management scenarios were given, equal, double, and half the level of efforts averaged over the last 10 years. Laboratory experiments were also conducted to obtain growth curves of phytoplankton under the temperature range from 10°C to 30°C with increments of 5°C. The target species are Alexandrium tamarense, Prorocentrum minimum, Skeletonema costatum, Thalassiosira nordenskioldii, Thalassiosira weissflogii, Chaetoceros debilis, Odontella longicruris, and Skeletonema sp., comprising more than half of the total weight of phytoplankton in the study area. The EwE model was run for 100 years, with climate-based bottom-up forcing implemented. The model results show that biomass changes are dynamic depending on the climate and fishery management scenario. based on in situ long-term temperature measurements during 1965–2007 and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) model experiments, respectively. The GFDL model was applied to the spatially refined eastern Asia waters, with boundary condition obtained from the IPCC A1B scenario. Three fishery management scenarios were given, equal, double, and half the level of efforts averaged over the last 10 years. Laboratory experiments were also conducted to obtain growth curves of phytoplankton under the temperature range from 10°C to 30°C with increments of 5°C. The target species are Alexandrium tamarense, Prorocentrum minimum, Skeletonema costatum, Thalassiosira nord