Projected sea level change in the North Pacific Ocean based on IPCC AR4 Scenario

Abstract

Many studies have reported sea level change including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fourth Assesment Report (AR4) scenario. Most model studies have pivoted on the global ocean, but they have not explicitly included density-driven sea level change. This study would estimate North Pacific sea level change by using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model 4.1 (MOM4p1), which is developed to calculate both steric and non-steric effect explicitly. The model used in this study is Ocean-Ice coupled model and has higher resolution (0.5°X0.5°X50 layer) than most of the CMIP3 models. Initial data is from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE) data and forcing data is from A1B scenario model results. Our model projects relatively high sea level rise in the subtropical gyre and warm-pool region, mainly due to thermal expansion. Salinity decrease additionally contributes to the sea level rise in the warm-pool region. Our model projection shows similar patterns in sea level changes to those of CMIP3 projection. Some areas, however, show substantial differences from CMIP3 projections. For example, both warm-pool and Kuroshio current area show higher sea level changes than AR4 result. Furthermore, sea levels in Kamchatka Peninsula and Aleutian Islands area are projected to be risen in opposition to AR4 result.sity-driven sea level change. This study would estimate North Pacific sea level change by using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model 4.1 (MOM4p1), which is developed to calculate both steric and non-steric effect explicitly. The model used in this study is Ocean-Ice coupled model and has higher resolution (0.5°X0.5°X50 layer) than most of the CMIP3 models. Initial data is from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE) data and forcing data is from A1B scenario model results. Our model projects relatively high sea level rise in the subtropical gyre and warm-pool region, mainly due to thermal ex