Reproduction and prediction modeling activities on Tsunami events in KIOST

Abstract

The earthquake of magnitude 9.0 that occurred in March 2011 and the ensuingcrisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant prompted sweeping reviews of Japansdisaster preparedness and criticism over apparent failures to take into account potential risks.Data from a field survey of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami in the Sanriku area of Japan is usedto plot the distribution function of runup heights along the coast. It is shown that thedistribution function can be approximated by a theoretical log-normal curve. Thecharacteristics of the distribution functions of the 2011 event are compared with data fromtwo previous catastrophic tsunamis (1896 and 1933) that occurred in almost the same region.The Japanese government revised its tsunami projections based on studies conducted after thecatastrophes in a report posted on a government website. While the earlier forecast in 2003put the potential maximum height of a tsunami runup at less than 20 m, a governmental panelof experts in Japan recently reported that the occurrence of a magnitude-9.0 earthquake in theNankai trough, which runs east of Japans main island of Honshu to the southern island ofKyushu, might generate a tsunami runup with a height of more than 34 m, which wouldinundate much of Japan’s Pacific coast. In this study, we conducted a numerical simulation ofthe propagation of the tsunami from Japans Pacific coast to the southeraccount potential risks.Data from a field survey of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami in the Sanriku area of Japan is usedto plot the distribution function of runup heights along the coast. It is shown that thedistribution function can be approximated by a theoretical log-normal curve. Thecharacteristics of the distribution functions of the 2011 event are compared with data fromtwo previous catastrophic tsunamis (1896 and 1933) that occurred in almost the same region.The Japanese government revised its tsunami projections based on studies conducted after thecatastrophes in a report posted on a government website. While the earlier forecast in 2003put the potential maximum height of a tsunami runup at less than 20 m, a governmental panelof experts in Japan recently reported that the occurrence of a magnitude-9.0 earthquake in theNankai trough, which runs east of Japans main island of Honshu to the southern island ofKyushu, might generate a tsunami runup with a height of more than 34 m, which wouldinundate much of Japan’s Pacific coast. In this study, we conducted a numerical simulation ofthe propagation of the tsunami from Japans Pacific coast to the souther