비부씨네스크해양-해빙모델을 이용한 SRES A1B 시나리오의 북태평양 해수면 전망

Abstract

To predict future sea level change due to global warming for the East Asian Marginal Seas and the North Pacific Ocean, time-slice experiments were performed using a global non-Boussinesq ocean-sea ice coupled model (GFDL MOM4-SIS) with a horizontal resolution of about 0.5º. First, climatological mean ocean state is simulated with a long-term integration of 100 to 500 years with boundary conditions from CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment) climatological mean ocean and atmospheric states. Next, for climate change experiments atmospheric forcing data are taken from the CMIP3 experiments of GFDL CM2.1, MIROC-Hi and ECHAM5,following the SRES A1B scenario. Projected sea level from the ensemble runs of the three respective external forcings show different horizontal patterns, with different rate of increase for the 2050s. Greater sea level rise in the subtropical region, and very little increase in the off-equatorial region of the North Pacific occurs with GFDL CM2.1 forcing. Overall sea level rise in the North Pacific was greatest in MIROC-Hi among the three model projections in ECHAM5 it was higher than GFDL CM2.1 but lower than MIROC-Hi.rizontal resolution of about 0.5º. First, climatological mean ocean state is simulated with a long-term integration of 100 to 500 years with boundary conditions from CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment) climatological mean ocean and atmospheric states. Next, for climate change experiments atmospheric forcing data are taken from the CMIP3 experiments of GFDL CM2.1, MIROC-Hi and ECHAM5,following the SRES A1B scenario. Projected sea level from the ensemble runs of the three respective external forcings show different horizontal patterns, with different rate of increase for the 2050s. Greater sea level rise in the subtropical region, and very little increase in the off-equatorial region of the North Pacific occurs with GFDL CM2.1 forcing. Overall sea level rise in the North Pacific was greatest in MIROC-Hi among the three model projections in ECHAM5 it was higher than GFDL CM2.1 but lower than MIROC-Hi.