Timing of unprecedented climate in Korea: A linear projection

Abstract

Recent extreme weather events worldwide combined with the emergence of the highest surface temperatures recorded since the emergence of human life on Earth raise the question if such extreme climate events will occur more frequently and become normal in the future. This study aims at identifying the timing of emergence of a statistically unprecedented climate state over Korea with special focus on its regional footprints. In this study, we use an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015 and estimate the timing of unprecedented climate using a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data, unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to be statistically significant (above the 95% confidence level) by 2043 in Cheongju at first and by 2168 in Haenam at last. The 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in the timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the sensitivity of the linear estimation to the data period, our findings of large regional differences in the timing of unprecedented climate can provide insight to develop policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, not only to the central government but to provincial governments.ome normal in the future. This study aims at identifying the timing of emergence of a statistically unprecedented climate state over Korea with special focus on its regional footprints. In this study, we use an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015 and estimate the timing of unprecedented climate using a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data, unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to be statistically significant (above the 95% confidence level) by 2043 in Cheongju at first and by 2168 in Haenam at last. The 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in the timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the sensitivity of the linear estimation to the data period, our findings of large regional differences in the timing of unprecedented climate can provide insight to develop policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, not only to the central government but to provincial governments.