Development of Ocean MIDium range forecAst System for the Seas around Korea

Abstract

Due to a decline of total catch production in Korean waters during the recent decade, a prediction for the fishery resource has been emerged as an important issue for the reasonable management and recovery of fishery resources. Since fishery resources are influenced by the marine environment, changes in marine environment especially due to a climate change should be considered to predict the fishery resources. However, a prediction of marine environment on a medium range (2 ~ 6 months in this study) has been rarely performed. Thus we have developed the Ocean MIDium range forecAst System (OMIDAS) for the Northwest Pacific including the seas around Korea and performed a three-month re-forecast simulation for themodel validation using NCEP Climate Forecast System version2 (CFSv2) Operational Analysis data as an atmospheric forcing and open boundary condition. To examine the effect of an initial condition, we conducted two re-forecast experiments using CFSv2 Operational Analysis and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). We analyzed the last month (March of 2016) of the simulation output and verified that the model successfully re-forecasted the temperature anomaly distribution of SeaSurface Temperature. As observed, the two-model showed a positive anomaly compared to the normal year averaged for 1982-2010, especially in the regions with warm currents such as Kuroshio and Tsushima, East Korea Warm Current, and Yellow Sy resources are influenced by the marine environment, changes in marine environment especially due to a climate change should be considered to predict the fishery resources. However, a prediction of marine environment on a medium range (2 ~ 6 months in this study) has been rarely performed. Thus we have developed the Ocean MIDium range forecAst System (OMIDAS) for the Northwest Pacific including the seas around Korea and performed a three-month re-forecast simulation for themodel validation using NCEP Climate Forecast System version2 (CFSv2) Operational Analysis data as an atmospheric forcing and open boundary condition. To examine the effect of an initial condition, we conducted two re-forecast experiments using CFSv2 Operational Analysis and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). We analyzed the last month (March of 2016) of the simulation output and verified that the model successfully re-forecasted the temperature anomaly distribution of SeaSurface Temperature. As observed, the two-model showed a positive anomaly compared to the normal year averaged for 1982-2010, especially in the regions with warm currents such as Kuroshio and Tsushima, East Korea Warm Current, and Yellow S