기후모형에서의 모의되는 열대저기압의 잠재빈도

Abstract

Previous studies address tropical cyclone genesis with atmospheric variables and upper ocean temperatures rather than sea surface temperature itself. Some researchers emphasizes that atmospheric static stability is an important factor for tropical cyclone frequency meanwhile, other research group showed that zonal sea surface temperature gradient plays a critical role of genesis of tropical cyclones using a high-resolution global circulation model rather than dry static stability in the atmosphere. The role of large-scale environmental parameters for tropical cyclone genesis is still unclear in spite of the former numerous efforts for genesis of tropical cyclones. This study discusses genesis potential of tropical cyclones due to sea surface temperature associated with atmospheric variables in the Pacific area in the current state-of-art global climate models, CMIP5 coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5. Several available model results are used including observed TC tracks and high-resolution climate model results. The model results are consistent to high-resolution model results. This study also discusses variability of potential intensity of tropical cyclones and its contributing factors. In particular, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, air temperature, and specific humidity are important factors for potential intensity of tropical cyclones. Their relative contributions are compared in this sturopical cyclone frequency meanwhile, other research group showed that zonal sea surface temperature gradient plays a critical role of genesis of tropical cyclones using a high-resolution global circulation model rather than dry static stability in the atmosphere. The role of large-scale environmental parameters for tropical cyclone genesis is still unclear in spite of the former numerous efforts for genesis of tropical cyclones. This study discusses genesis potential of tropical cyclones due to sea surface temperature associated with atmospheric variables in the Pacific area in the current state-of-art global climate models, CMIP5 coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5. Several available model results are used including observed TC tracks and high-resolution climate model results. The model results are consistent to high-resolution model results. This study also discusses variability of potential intensity of tropical cyclones and its contributing factors. In particular, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, air temperature, and specific humidity are important factors for potential intensity of tropical cyclones. Their relative contributions are compared in this stu