A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea SCIE SCOPUS KCI

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Title
A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea
Author(s)
Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Chung, Il-Ung
KIOST Author(s)
Jang, Chan Joo(장찬주)
Publication Year
2017-11
Abstract
Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.
ISSN
1976-7633
URI
https://sciwatch.kiost.ac.kr/handle/2020.kiost/1128
DOI
10.1007/s13143-017-0044-1
Bibliographic Citation
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, v.53, no.4, pp.411 - 419, 2017
Publisher
KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Subject
VARIABILITY; TRENDS
Keywords
Unprecedented climate; global warming linear trend; magnitude of internal variability; surface air temperature
Type
Article
Language
English
Document Type
Article
Publisher
KOREAN METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Related Researcher
Research Interests

upper ocean dynamics,regional climate modeling,ocean climate change,해양상층역학,지역기후모델링,해양기후변화

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